The revolutionary attempt to introduce complex dynamic systems theory (CDST) into the sphere of applied linguistics has shifted the conventional linear causal research paradigm into a nonlinear systems-level approach (Hiver, Hoorie & Larsen Freeman, 2022; Larsen-Freeman, 1997). The recent two decades have witnessed an increasing number of theoretical and empirical studies situated from a CDST perspective, particularly in language learning motivation (e.g., Dörnyei, MacIntyre, & Henry, 2015; Guo, Xu, & Xu, 2020). Nevertheless, the methodological exploration of CDST, a meta-theory derived from natural science, in applied linguistics research, particularly third language acquisition, still remains on the periphery of the field. Specifically, it is demanding to report the predictable aspects of complex dynamic systems as one of the key characteristics of the systems is unpredictability. To address this gap, this paper seeks to investigate retrodictive qualitative modelling (RQM), a ground-breaking method which reverses the traditional way to conduct research: it first examines the end-states and then traces back the developmental trajectories leading to these outcomes (Dörnyei, 2014). Starting with the methodological challenges in researching complex dynamic systems, I critically discuss why RQM is innovative, how it functions in conducting research in a dynamic vein by illustrating a case study on third language learning motivation via this methodology, and its future potential. In this sense, the paper provides empirical evidence and valuable insights for future lines of research. Furthermore, I advocate more original approaches to reconceptualise the dynamic, idiosyncratic and context-sensitive essence of Applied Linguistics and third language acquisition.
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