The present paper explores the potential of Complex Dynamic Systems Theory (CDST) in approaching writing development. Through the lens of CDST, multilingual writing development is seen as a self-organizing system "that (1) involves multiple interconnected parts (2) changing together (3) through non-linear processes that (4) lead to emergent patterns over time (De Bot, Lowie, & Verspoor, 2007; Hiver & Al-Hoorie, 2020; Larsen-Freeman, 2012). The paper proposes an empirical approach to statistical data analyses addressing multilingual writing development in the CDST framework. The approach consists of two steps: (1) We elaborate an integrated model of multilingual writing competence consisting of writing proficiencies in different languages and (2) trace their relational development over time.
We applied data from a German panel study, "Multilingual Development: A Longitudinal Perspective (MEZ)" (Gogolin et al., 2017), funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The panel comprised 2103 students from the German secondary educational system with Russian, Turkish, and monolingual German language backgrounds. In four waves (2013 to 2018), students' multilingual writing proficiencies were measured in the majority language (German), heritage languages (Russian or Turkish), and the first foreign language learned at school (English). The writing data was analyzed based on a generic model of writing proficiency, which is comparative across the investigated languages, covering textual-pragmatic, lexico-syntactic, and productivity proficiency dimensions. For our current analyses, we use a sample n = 965 bilingual secondary students (n = 364 German–Russian and n = 601 German–Turkish) in German (ML), Russian or Turkish (HL), and English (FL).
Firstly, we analyzed multilingual writing's dimensionality to model students' writing proficiency in ML, HL, and FL as an integrated construct. As a statistical method, we used second-order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to translate the theory on multilingual writing into an integrated statistical model. The results present multilingual writing competence as a complex interconnected system.
Secondly, we analyzed multilingual writing development by tracing the interconnectedness of different writimg proficiencies over time. We used cross-lagged panel analysis to analyze the development of interindividual differences in multilingual writing development in ML, HL, and FL in three waves over a timespan of two years. Our findings indicate that language-specific writing skills may serve as mutual resources for the development of multilingual writing proficiency.
Overall, the proposed CDST-based empirical approach to multilingual writing development provides convincing evidence for the interconnected parts and developmental patterns to fit the puzzle of multilingual writing development proposed by the theory.
De Bot, K., Wander, L., & Verspoor, M. (2007). A Dynamic Systems Theory approach to second language acquisition. Bilingualism: Language and Cognition, 10(1), 7–21.
Gogolin, I., Klinger, T., Lagemann, M., & Schnoor, B. (2017). Indikation, Konzeption und Untersuchungsdesign des Projekts Mehrsprachigkeitsentwicklung im Zeitverlauf (MEZ) (MEZ Arbeitspapiere Nr. 1). Hamburg. Universität Hamburg. http://www.pedocs.de/volltexte/2017/14825/pdf/Gogolin_et_al_2017_Indikation_Konzeption_Untersuchungsdesign.pdf
Hiver, P. and Al-Hoorie, A. H. (2020). Research methods for complexity theory in applied linguistics. Multilingual Matters.
Larsen-Freeman, D. (2012). Complex, dynamic systems: A new transdisciplinary theme for applied linguistics? Language Teaching, 45(2), 202-214. doi:10.1017/S0261444811000061
